Start with today. Kevin Warsh runs his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair right now, and the rate decision plus the dot plot land in hours. The market's already priced a hold at something like 98% odds, so the decision itself isn't the story. The presser is. The dots are. If Warsh sounds even slightly hawkish about 2026, and odds of a hike already sit above 50% for the year, risk assets flinch. Bitcoin's done this dance before. It's fallen after eight of the last nine FOMC meetings, around 11% on average. That's not a law of physics. But it's a pattern I respect.
Then there's Japan. The Bank of Japan just took its rate to 1%, the highest since 1995. That sounds far away from crypto. It isn't. A higher yen rate threatens the carry trade, where people borrow cheap yen to buy riskier stuff worldwide, and when that unwinds it drains liquidity from everything, including Bitcoin. After January's hike, BTC dropped about 3%. Analysts expect two more hikes this year. So I've got a hawkish-ish Fed and a tightening Japan stacked on top of each other. That's a heavy ceiling.
Here's the part that keeps me from turning fully bearish.
The on-chain picture flipped. Glassnode showed buyers adding around 259,298 BTC in the $59K to $67K band this week, and its Accumulation Trend Score hit the strongest reading of the whole drawdown. Translation: after months of net selling, wallets big and small started buying again. That $59K to $67K range isn't a line on a chart anymore. It's where a lot of coins actually changed hands, which makes it real support, the kind built from people's cost basis rather than wishful thinking.
Miners add to that floor in a weird way. Difficulty just dropped 10.09%, the second-biggest cut of 2026, after the June price slide forced inefficient rigs offline. Lower difficulty means the miners still running are cheaper to operate and less pressured to dump coins to cover power bills. The network self-corrects. It always has.
So here's my actual forecast, and I'll be specific because vague predictions are worthless.
Near term, next two to three weeks, I think Bitcoin chops between roughly $62K and $69K. I'd lean toward the lower half of that until the macro fog clears. If Warsh spooks the market or the yen carry unwind picks up speed, a flush toward $59K is on the table, and I'd treat that as a buy zone, not a reason to panic, because that's exactly where the accumulation showed up. A clean break below $58K would change the story and tell me the floor's cracking. I don't expect it, but I'm watching it.
Medium term, call it the next two to three months, I'm cautiously constructive. Bitcoin's still trading above its 200-day moving average around $65,192, and the monthly RSI near 49.74 is dead neutral, which means it's neither overbought nor capitulated. That's a coiled-spring setup, not a top. If the macro headwinds ease even a little, and the buying we just saw keeps up, I think a push back toward $74K is realistic by late summer. Some technical models already point at the 200-day SMA climbing toward $75,594 by mid-July, and price tends to gravitate toward those slow averages over time.
What I won't do is promise you the moon. The accounts screaming $120K by Christmas are selling you a feeling. The ones calling for $40K are selling you fear. Both get clicks. Neither helps you size a position.
My bias, plainly: I'd rather be a buyer in the low $60s than a seller, but I wouldn't go all in before Warsh speaks and before I see how the yen behaves over the next couple weeks. Patience is a position too.
The thing I keep reminding myself is that the worst stretches to buy feel terrible, and the best ones feel like catching a knife. Fear and Greed sat around 22 this week. That's fear, not euphoria. People buying down here aren't chasing greed, they're betting against the crowd, and historically that's worked more often than it's failed. No guarantee the floor holds. But the setup is the kind I'd rather lean into than run from.
This is my read, not advice. I'm not your financial advisor, and Bitcoin's perfectly capable of making me look foolish by next Tuesday.