Start with the chart, since that's where the next few weeks actually get decided. ETH is hugging its 200-day moving average, which has been sitting near $1,668. The daily RSI has been hanging around 42 to 45, which is neutral bordering on weak. Not oversold, not hot. That kind of reading usually means range, not rocket. My near-term call is a grind between roughly $1,650 and $1,950 over the next two to three weeks, and if I'm being real about the tape, I lean toward the lower half of that band before anything good happens.

Why the caution? Macro, mostly. Two things are draining liquidity at the same time. The Bank of Japan pushed its short-term rate to 1%, the highest since 1995, and that puts pressure on the yen carry trade that's quietly funded a lot of risk-asset buying. When that trade unwinds, crypto feels it, and ETH being high-beta feels it more. On top of that, Kevin Warsh just ran his first FOMC meeting as Fed chair, and the dot plot and his tone matter more than the rate decision itself. New chair, uncertain signaling, jittery market. That's not a backdrop for altcoins to rip.

Here's where it gets interesting, though, and where I part ways with the doom crowd. The stuff underneath ETH has quietly never looked stronger, even as the price bleeds. Staking participation hit an all-time high around 32.7% of supply. Think about what that means. Almost a third of all ether is locked up earning yield, not sitting on exchanges waiting to be dumped. That's a shrinking float. And the issuance side is shrinking too. We just watched Tether's USDT briefly pass ETH by market cap for the first time in eight years, which sounds humiliating, and the headlines played it that way. But look at the mechanism. USDT grew because more dollars got printed onto chains. ETH's cap shrank because the price fell, not because the network is dying. Those are different stories wearing the same costume.

So I see a coiled spring. Supply tightening, usage holding, price suppressed by macro. That setup doesn't pay you tomorrow. It pays you when the macro fog lifts.

On the upgrade front, the Glamsterdam upgrade slipped from its original June target to Q3, with no firm mainnet date yet. I actually like that the Ethereum Foundation pushed it back rather than shipping something half-tested. Solana and Hyperliquid fans will mock the slow pace, and fine, ETH ships slower. It also hasn't had the embarrassing outages. Careful is a feature when you're settling real value. The flip side: there's no near-term catalyst from the upgrade either, so don't expect tech news to bail out the price this month.

Let me put actual numbers on it, since that's the point of a prediction.

Near-term, two to three weeks: I expect $1,650 to $1,950, biased lower. A flush toward $1,500 to $1,550 is very much on the table if BOJ unwind and Fed nerves stack up, and I'd treat that zone as an accumulation gift, not a reason to panic-sell. A clean break below $1,400 would make me rethink the whole bull case, so that's my line in the sand.

Medium-term, into late summer: cautiously bullish. If ETH holds the $1,650 area and reclaims $1,950 with conviction, I think a push back toward $2,300 to $2,500 is reasonable as the float keeps tightening and risk appetite recovers. That's not a moonshot. It's a 30-something percent move off current levels, modest by crypto standards.

And the long-range stuff? The analyst spread is comical right now. Citi sits cautious near $3,175. Standard Chartered is out there at $7,500. When the pros disagree by more than double, it tells you nobody actually knows, and you should weight your own risk management over anybody's target. I'd put more faith in the supply mechanics than in a 2027 price tag pulled from a spreadsheet.

My bias, plainly: I'm a buyer of ETH weakness in the $1,500s, a holder in the $1,700s, and I'd start trimming into strength near $2,500 if we get there fast. Not financial advice, just how I'm playing my own bag. Fear is high, the float is shrinking, and the price hasn't caught up to the fundamentals yet. That gap is where the opportunity lives. Whether it closes in six weeks or six months, I genuinely don't know. I just don't think it stays open forever.